Loser Takes All
An Ocean Of Variance
In Graham Greene’s ‘Loser Takes All’ (1955), there is one memorable Monte Carlo Casino passage which follows the character Bertram as he becomes absorbed by the roulette table. Initially inexperienced and uncertain, he treats gambling almost like a puzzle rather than a reckless risk. Instead of betting impulsively, he carefully observes the table, trying to detect patterns in the outcomes.
As the scene develops, Bertram begins placing small bets, which leads to a streak of modest wins. Unlike the typical gambler driven by excitement or desperation, he remains calm and analytical, which sets him apart from the other players around him. The casino atmosphere, normally associated with chaos and chance, feels almost controlled from his perspective.
This passage highlights one of Greene’s central ideas: that luck can sometimes favour detachment and reason over passion. Bertram’s success isn’t portrayed as good fortune, but as the result of his outsider mindset, subtly critiquing both the illusion of control in gambling and the behaviours of more conventional risk-takers. It would of course have been better if Greene had chosen poker for his protagonist. A game of skill rather than one of pure chance would have better served his objectives but, taken with a pinch of salt, it still worked as a scene.
Ultimately, Greene used Bertram’s winning streak to explore deeper philosophical questions - whether success is random or if belief in a system can actually create its own form of reality. As poker players, particularly tournament players, we straddle both ideas, one over the short and the other over the long term. At sea in an ocean of variance, we engage in some celestial navigation. If game theory is our North Star to follow and exploits are our Cassiopeia to which to adjust, then poor card distribution is the changing tide, a physical force we cannot out-muscle and bad beats are the wind, constantly knocking us off course.
Chinese Water Torture
Despite being a poker player for almost twenty years, until last week, I had never ventured to the principality of Monaco. It always struck me as one of those ‘not my kind of place’ places but, then again, I used to say that about Las Vegas and I’ve had some great trips to the desert since finally going in 2017. So, with that in mind, this curmudgeon did his best to be open-minded about the quirky semi-enclave on the French Riviera and the home of the Monte Carlo Casino.
The first three days of my trip took on a similar shape. I walked to the card room, entered a tournament, chipped up immediately, went to dinner with two and a half starting stacks and then treaded water thereafter until my stack was sub-20 big blinds with the bubble looming. None of my bust-outs were particularly interesting, all standard spots, but it’s always a little disappointing to put in a ten hour day at the felt and walk just away outside the money.
On Day 4, I took the afternoon off to write and re-charge, playing a qualifier to the main event at 9pm. A milestone satellite, the objective was to get from 10K to 50K in chips. I peaked at 38,500 before I was neatly outplayed by an Italian gentleman and his pocket aces. That left me back roughly where I started and requiring a spin. I shoved my 8♠️7♠️ in late position and was called by A♠️T♠️ and pocket Jacks, finishing in a well-deserved third place.
When you play poker long enough, you see all the different types of streaks and experience all the different ways that the Poker Gods can smile or frown upon you. Consistently building three to five stacks only to see your hopes dashed is its own form of torment but on the spectrum of excruciating experiences, it’s more like a cheeky bit of Chinese water torture than actually being put on the rack.
Three Glasses of Champagne and Two Gifts
On Day 5, there was the option to play Day 1A of the Main Event but there was also the not so small matter of the Player’s Party. As the newest PokerStars ambassador, I felt the pressure - neigh, the responsibility - not only to attend but to fully embrace the role of champagne waiter to the players, as you can clearly see here in a superb image captured by my good friend and master of the photographic arts Danny Maxwell. It was certainly a fun night but I made sure it was also an early night so that I was fresh for 1B of the Main Event.
Arriving to my table after a hearty breakfast, I was pleasantly surprised by the lack of End-bosses and abundance of recreational players seated. I was also the grateful recipient of an absolute gift in level 2 when I flopped top set against my opponent’s top two-pair and he donk-led and ultimately called my flop 4bet shove with 0.1% equity.
A few hours later, there was another moment of generosity directed towards me when I opened my third hand in a row, eliciting a 3-bet from a Frenchman on the button. I hadn’t been that active overall but he read me for a driver changing gears rather than the benefactor of some better card distribution. As it happened, he had 30 big blinds and I had pocket Tens so it seemed like the only reasonable thing to do was to send in my soldiers.
It’s one of those spots where you don’t want a snap-call but you’re mostly happy with a tank-call so the sound of frustrated groans from the villain was music to my ears. He huffed and puffed and, as the chant of “Fold Ace-Jack! Call Pocket Nines…” reverberated inside my head for the third time, he made the call, tabling the very optimistic Ace-Eight off-suit. A ten on the flop drew him stone dead and propelled me to 100K in chips, a stack which didn’t fluctuate much for the rest of the day.
Day 2
At the start of Day 2, we were informed that we would be playing to the money, implying a shorter day as the bubble was likely to bust early in the fifth level. I had an average stack and a tough opening table but I knew it would break within the first hour. I kept things snug and was rewarded with a much better table for level 2. I small-balled for the next couple of levels, bouncing between 55K and 106K.
At BB3K, there were 170 players left, 151 of whom would make the money. The two big stacks at my table were opening up and there was also the loosest of loose cannons splashing about wildly with massive open and 3-bet sizes. This dynamic plus my stack of 78K meant that the handcuffs were really on and I had to proceed cautiously. A♠️T♣️ in the LoJack, 7♥️7♦️ UTG2 and even K♥️Q♥️ UTG were all folded over the course of the next hour.
There was one hand I certainly couldn’t fold though and that was a pair of black Aces in the Cut-Off. I raised to 6K and was called by the Button (a middling stack who had me well covered) and the Big Blind (the loose-cannon). The flop came 9♦️5♣️4♠️. The big blind checked, I checked and the button bet one-third of the pot. The Big Blind folded and I called. The turn brought the 3♦️. Again I checked, again the Button bet a third of the pot and again I called. The K♦️ landed on the river and I checked for a third time, resigned to my fate if my opponent had always had a better holding or got there. He checked, I showed and he mucked.
This might seem like a funky line by me but it was a product of the situational dynamics. Bubble-adjacent, the shorter stack is meant to under-realise their equity, especially out of position while the bigger stack in position gets to over-realise. My strategy therefore should be to protect my checking range by turning a lot of my value hands that would normally bet into bluff catchers. Pocket Aces is the hand of mine that requires the least amount of protection so it feels like a good candidate for that passive line.
With the tournament clock displaying 154 players remaining, we went on our last break of the day, returning to find out that one more elimination had put us two from the money. Hand-for-hand commenced and we lost a player immediately. A quick scan of the PokerStars app showed that there were four players with less than five big blinds. For the next forty minutes, nineteen full tables played out five hands until one of the shorties was finally forced all-in with J♣️6♣️ and couldn’t beat pocket Kings.
Day 3
The next morning, I returned with 25 big blinds at BB4K, hoping to catch fire after playing a full day with half the average. However, I was also very prepared to rinse and repeat. The thing about the EPT Main Event structure is just how slow it is. There’s never any need to panic or force the issue. While of course there are players building Taj Mahals of chips around you, it’s absolutely possible to grind your way through on a more modest progression curve.
The post-bubble bust-out bonanza did its thing without claiming me as a victim and by the first break we were down to 110 players. Playing 108K at BB5K, I opened A♣️T♣️ UTG1 and both the Cut-Off and Button called. The flop came Q♠️6♦️7♥️ and it checked through. The turn came the T♦️ and the action went check, check, a bet of 17K, call and call. The river brought the A♦️, making me two pair but completing both the straight and flush draws. I checked and was delighted to see it checked through. My hand was good!
By the end of the second break, there were just 85 players left and I was making slow but steady progress. At BB6K, the big-stack in the Cut-Off raised to 13K, the Button 3-bet to 33k (playing 170k) and I decided to shove with A♥️5♥️ from the Small Blind for 158K. It’s one of those magic hands that performs well when called in such a spot and I felt like there was plenty of fold equity versus those two ranges. Both players quickly folded and I was up to 216K.
A couple of orbits later, I opened to 12K with Q♥️Q♦️UTG. The Button and Big Blind made the call and the dealer fanned out the A♦️J♥️ 7♣️. The Big Blind checked, I figured my hand was a mix but went with check and the Button also checked. The turn brought the T♦️and the action went check, check and a bet of one-third pot from the Button. The Big Blind folded and I called. With 75K in the middle, the river came the Q♣️, a super-interesting card. I decided to bet 22K, pursuing value with my rivered set from two pair combos while also (hopefully) dissuading bluffs. My opponent min-clicked it to 44K and after a short tank, I folded.
Loser Takes 75th
The next break was on the horizon and our table was informed that it would be the next feature table. The blinds went through me and so I took my 13 big blind stack up to the stage, hoping for a spin-up. Immediately, I looked down at pocket Deuces on the Button. I briefly wondered if I could get away with a 3-bet shove over any of the players who might open as the action whipped around. It didn’t matter as it folded to me and I had an easy decision.
I shoved all-in and was snap-called by the Big Blind. I winced because you never want a call when you’re holding the ducks. I was fortunate that he had Ace-Ten suited. I was less fortunate when he flopped an Ace. The rest of the board ran out clean and my Main Event was over. I was eliminated in 75th place for €12,150. In my bust-out interview, I talked about the gratitude I feel at getting to play tournaments like that but also the frustration that I was feeling in the moment, having cashed another €5K+ Main Event without having a proper deep run or a real taste.
As ‘Loser Takes All’ progresses, Bertram faces a crucial turning point. What initially seemed like harmless entertainment starts to reveal its darker side: the risk of losing oneself in the pursuit of victory. He realises that his success at the casino cannot continue indefinitely and he must decide whether to walk away with his winnings or risk everything in pursuit of greater triumph.
There was a €25,000 tournament the next day and a few people asked me if I was going to play it. I laughed at the suggestion. In fact, the moment that I bust, all I could think about was getting home to my family. One of my biggest strengths as a player has always been knowing my level, my limits and my priorities. I have also mostly been good at walking away with my winnings. The ironic title of Greene’s novel underscores an important message: sometimes, in the quiet arithmetic of human experience, those who appear to lose may, in fact, preserve what matters most.
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