The Seattle Seahawks have been made the early favorites to win Super Bowl 50 by Australian bookmaker site, Sportsbet AU. One might assume the World Champion New England Patriots might be the odds-on favorite, but the Seahawks have been to the past two NFL championship games and came one play from repeating as champions.
The Seahawks have been installed as $7 favorites by Sportsbet AU. The Green Bay Packers and New England Patriots are tied as the second favorite with $8.50 lines. The Denver Broncos are next at $11.
Those unfamiliar with how wagers are processed in Australia might be wondering how to figure the wagers just described. To understand the notations, you need to understand decimal oddsmaking.
Decimal Odds Explained
Deciminal odds are the preferred way to place bets in Australia. These odds can easily be converted into the fractional odds used in the UK, but one key factor must be remembered: the wager is always pocketed by the sportsbook in Australia.
To account for this, the amount of the wager must be factored into the payout. So if you want to write down 1-to-1 or 1/1 odds in the decimal system, would write $2, accounting for the $1 you wagered which is returned to you, plus the $1 you won in the bet. If you received 3-to-1 odds, then the decimal odds would be written out at $4. Once again, this signifies the $1 wager combined with the $3 payout.
Why the Seahawks Are Favored
The Seattle Seahawks are favored for a number of reasons. When Super Bowl 50 rolls around, Russell Wilson will be 27 years old, which is considered the prime of an athlete's career. At that age, a player usually has the best combination of athletic talent and veteran savvy.
In fact, many of the Seahawks are approaching their prime years. When Pete Carroll's team blew out the Denver Broncos in Super Bowl 48, they were the youngest team in the National Football League. The last time a team as young as the Seahawks had won as Super Bowl was the 1992 Dallas Cowboys, which went on to win 3 of 4 world titles and became the team of the 1990s.
The Seahawks should still be young next year. The way they lost should have another effect: they should remain hungry. In fact, they might play angry.
Why You Should Beware Seattle
Reasons exist to beware a Seattle wager, though. The most important player on the team, the heart-and-soul, Marshawn Lynch, will be 29 when the next Super Bowl kicks off. In the NFL, running backs get old quickly. While a 29-year old quarterback is young, a 29-year old running back is considered aging.
No other player on the field runs into linebackers and safeties 20 to 30 times a game. Hall of Famer and all-time rushing leader Emmitt Smith compared being an NFL running back to being in 25 car wrecks every week. Running backs wear out quickly, and Beast Mode has a punishing running style which is certain to take its toll on the man.
Questions about Marshawn Lynch
Two other possibilities remain. The Seahawks might choose to let Marshawn Lynch walk in free agency. That might seem incredible, but they were all-but-assured of doing so at midseason of 2014. Marshawn Lynch was causing distractions with the media and he had held out of camp. The team has spent 2nd and 3rd round draft picks on capable (though little-known) backsup Christine Michael and Robert Turbin in recent years. With the way RBs fall in the draft, the team could draft Melvin Gordon to replace Lynch.
Also, Marshawn Lynch could retire. He's hinted he would do so each of the past two seasons. Beast Mode is not what you would consider a stable personality, so one can never be certain what he might do. If he leaves the team or losing a step, betting on the Seahawks is a bad bargain.
Other Question Marks
The team has other question marks, too. For instance, the NFL is a copycat league. Teams often over-value role players and marginal talents on successful teams. Therefore, the champs often lose more players in free agency than their rivals. If they don't, the salary cap becomes tricky. Expect to see a certain erosion of talent in Seattle. It happened this past season along the defensive line, which is why a team like the Dallas Cowboys could beat up the Seahawks and abuse their undersized defensive line in a regular season game.
Also, the team has made two deep runs in the playoffs. Those are 6 grueling more games than many teams have played these past two years--almost a full half-season more. That wears on the body, even on young and healthy teams. Look at the fall-off the San Fransisco 49ers showed in 2014, after making 3 straight deep runs in the playoffs.
Of course, the Niners had a drop-off after 3 deep playoff runs, so the Seahawks might have one more championship campaign in them. But the heartrending way they lost the Super Bowl could do long-term damage to the team's psyche. They would not be the first Super Bowl loser to have a hangover from the championship game.
Other Super Bowl Picks
Until Peyton Manning announces he will return to the Mile High City, I would not take the Denver Broncos bet. That team looks much different if Brock Osweiler is the quarterback.
The Patriots and Packers are both solid bets, though Tom Brady is going to be 38 years old next year. Of all teams, the $17 wager on the Dallas Cowboys looks like the best value. The Cowboys might lose Demarco Murray to free agency, but a good argument could be made that Murray is a product of his offensive line. He never produced in years past the way he did in 2014. In fact, I see a scenario where Murray departs, Adrian Peterson leaves Minnesota (which is surely going to happen), and AP gives the Cowboys a discount to return to his hometown in the DFW Metroplex for one last run at the Super Bowl--and redemption for the Hall of Fame runner.
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